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01 · Placement Where should the nest go? — interactive picker, per window

The picker, in one sentence. It takes a set of d01 WRF pre-runs, computes eight convective indices, standardises them against a ~3-month climatology of the same physics suite, and sweeps a 40 × 40 d01-cell box that maximises the composite anomaly under a land-fraction constraint.

Two boxes are drawn for every window. The self-score box normalises against the day's own distribution — it always finds some relative hot-spot. The climo-score box normalises against the multi-month climatology and enables the go/no-go decision: a window whose best box scores below zero is not convectively supported, and the nested run can be skipped.

The output is a set of i_parent/j_parent indices plus a namelist.wps and namelist.input ready for the next stage.

Afternoon climo-anomaly composite with placed nest boxes
Afternoon — climo-normalised composite anomaly with self & climo nest boxes overlaid (d02 outer, d03 inner, d04 sibling).
How to read <z>. The climo-score is a per-cell z-score against a ~3-month WRF climatology (GENBE_NMC_2022_2023_D01). <z> ≈ 0 means the box sits at the climatological norm; +1σ ≈ top 16% convective day, +2σ ≈ top 2% — under a Gaussian assumption for a clipped/floored box mean (audit erratum E6: read these percentiles as indicative, not exact). A window whose best box scores below zero is not convectively supported — you can skip the nested run.

The two windows for Macaé 21–22 Jan 2024

Morning climo composite
window A · morning

00–03 Z · +0.40σ

4 GFS-driven WRF cycles. Mildly favourable against climatology. d03 inside radar range; d04 sibling over Angra, outside coverage (where the verification later shows the DA degrades the forecast — see 03). Audit note: the published box was pinned to a prior run's position, and the executed d04 is (17,70) — this page now shows the as-run geometry.

Open the morning picker
Afternoon climo composite
window B · afternoon

06–09 Z · +1.00σ

4 GFS-driven WRF cycles. Favourable (+1.00σ; the margin over the |z|≥1 cut is thin — erratum E6). d03 inside radar range; the afternoon d04 sits ~126 km NW of the radar, inside coverage (it is not the Angra out-of-coverage sibling — audit erratum E5).

Open the afternoon picker

Namelist indices on the common grid

Common 4-domain grid: d01 9 km 120×110, d02 3 km 121×121, d03 1 km 121×121, d04 1 km 121×121 (sibling of d03). Radar Macaé INEA at (−22.406°, −41.860°).

windowi_parent (d01..d04)j_parent (d01..d04)
morning1, 21, 58, 171, 24, 77, 70
afternoon1, 41, 69, 291, 47, 72, 66